Monthly Archives: March 2008

Global Warming and Economic impact

“The economic impact would be devastating for the United States. We would see the loss of millions of jobs,Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years,Updated and Expanded Edition entire industries would flee to other countries, our people would face higher fuel costs, higher taxes, leading to lower productivity and a lower standard of living.”

My discussion with Dr. Singer shows how the global warming industry are creating more money for themselves and are pushing the facts aside. (Listen to my interview here.) It is true that very moderate warming has occurred, but much of it is due to natural causes and is therefore almost unstoppable and changes in environmental policy will just impact our economy and have little or no effect on global warming.

  1. Why is global warming (GW) so much less than greenhouse (GH) models calculate?
  2. Is GW natural or manmade? If natural, then GW is unstoppable and CO2 is irrelevant
  3. All policies to control CO2 are then useless–but very costly
  4. Economic impact of biofuels, of wind/solar, carbon sequestration
  5. Cap-and-Trade raises energy costs and hurts economic growth
  6. What really drives the Global Warmers?

S. Fred Singer – A biography

Dr. S. Fred Singer is Research Fellow at the Independent Institute, Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, a Fellow of the American Association for the Advancement of Science, and a Member of the International Academy of Astronautics.

He received his Ph.D. in physics from Princeton University. Dr. Singer has served as Vice Chairman of the National Advisory Committee on Oceans and Atmospheres; Chief Scientist for the U. S. Department of Transportation; Deputy Assistant Administrator at the U. S. Environmental Protection Agency; Deputy Assistant Secretary at the U. S. Department of the Interior; Dean of the School of Environmental and Planetary Sciences, University of Miami; (First) Director of the U. S. Weather Satellite Center; Director of the Center for Atmospheric and Space Physics, University of Maryland; and Research Physicist, Upper Atmospheric Rocket Program, Johns Hopkins University.

He has also been a visiting scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars; Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology; National Air and Space Museum; Lyndon Baines Johnson School for Public Affairs, University of Texas; and the Soviet Academy of Sciences Institute for Physics of the Earth. He is the recipient of the White House Special Commendation, Gold Medal Award from the U.S. Department of Commerce, (First) Science Award from the British Interplanetary Society, and Honorary Doctorate from Ohio State University.

Dr. Singer is the author or editor of fourteen books on climate science, energy, and environmental issues as well as the author of over 400 articles in scientific and public policy journals plus over 200 articles in popular publications, Dr. Singer has been featured in articles in Time, Life, and U. S. News & World Report, and he has been interviewed on Nightline, Today Show, News Hour, Nightwatch, and other national and international television programs.

Professor S. Fred Singer is the author of “Hot Talk, Cold Science: Global Warming’s Unfinished Debate,” published by the Independent Institute, a nonpartisan public-policy think-tank based in Oakland, California. He is Professor Emeritus of Environmental Sciences at the University of Virginia, and has served as Vice Chairman of the National Advisory Committee on Oceans and Atmospheres. He was also the first Director of the U. S. Weather Satellite Center. Prof. Singer’s latest book is “Unstoppable Global Warming: Every 1,500 Years,” cowritten with Dennis Avery.

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Climate Warming Tipping Point

We’ve all heard about global warming. The earth’s warming, it’s not — it’s cooling. One thing’s for sure, my head is spinning. It’s gotten hard to keep track of what kind of climate change we’re really in for. James White,James White Professor of Geological Sciences, Univ. of Colorado at Boulder, talked with me about what he thinks may be a tipping point.

Prof. White says that we may be in for an abrupt climate change, which is when the climate system shifts modes very rapidly (in a few years), by large amounts (5 to 10 degrees C annual temperature, doubling or halving of precipitation, etc.). This type of change is particularly scary, as it is unpredictable and potentially devastating.

The timing of thresholds are hard to predict. Arctic sea ice extents dropped dramatically this past year, for example. Models can predict that change, but not the exact timing.

Is there anything we can do to prepare for abrupt climate change?

The amount of carbon dioxide (CO2) in the air has a direct affect on the amount of warming our planet experiences.

  • At 380 ppm CO2, we are 100 ppm above the preindustrial level.
  • 100 ppm is the difference we see in ice cores over the past 1 million years between glacial periods and interglacial periods.
  • The climate system has inherent inertia, and thus most of the response to this increase in greenhouse gases is yet to come.
  • Increased levels of greenhouse gases will change climate. This is simple physics, and not a matter of scientific debate.
  • Quantifying feedbacks are key to understanding our future. Small changes in greenhouse gases can cause warming that trigger sea ice melt that in turn trigger much more warming as blue water replaces reflective, white ice.
  • Climate change from greenhouse gases is only one measure of human impacts on the planet. We make as much nitrogen fertilizer as all bacteria in the world.
  • We produce as much sulfate (a cooling aerosol that is a major cloud condensing nucleus) as all phytoplankton in the ocean.
  • We have power, we have the domination we’ve long sought… but now we need to accept the responsibility that comes with that power. Its time to mature and start doing that.

Have we already exceeded a level of increased greenhouse gases that will ultimately result in large increases in sea level (many meters), rainfall patterns, temperatures, and other parts of the climate system? The past would tell us yes.James White – A biography

James White is a Fellow and Interim Director of INSTAAR; Professor of Geological Sciences, Univ. of Colorado at Boulder.

James has started the INSTAAR Stable Isotope Lab in 1989. In recent years, his research has helped to show that large climate changes tend to occur in the natural system as abrupt and rapid shifts in mode probably driven by internal adjustments in the Earth climate system, rather than slow and gradual adjustments to changing external conditions, such as the amount of energy received from the sun.

His research has also helped to show that land plants are capable of removing large amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, amounts that equal our input of CO2 from fossil fuel burning on short time scales. Such large changes in the uptake of CO2 by plants is a key piece in the puzzle we must solve to address future CO2 levels and climate change.

James has written following research papers and also been a contributor of number of publications

  • Global scale climate and environmental dynamics.
  • Carbon dioxide concentrations and climate from stable hydrogen isotopes peats and other organics.
  • Climate from deuterium excess and hydrogen isotopes in ice cores.
  • Isotopes in general circulation models.
  • Modern carbon cycle dynamics via isotopes of carbon dioxide and methane.

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Bad Weather Instruments + No Monitoring = Global Warming

What happens when weather stations produce corrupt data? We get bad science that you can actually see. Unfortunately we’ve also ended up with bad public policies.

Anthony Watts of www.surfacestations.org has a big piece of data to share. 30% of the weather stations here in forestgrove.jpg the United States are flawed. Click on the picture on the right to see a station in Forest Grove, OR with an air conditioner exhaust blowing directly on the temperature shelter, with nearby asphalt and buildings — and this isn’t the worst offender. To see for yourself just how bad the science is, check out these links:

Anthony Watts – A biography

He’s a former television meteorologist who spent 25 years on the air and who also operates a weather technology and content business, as well as continues daily forecasting on radio, just for fun.

Weather measurement and weather presentation technology his specialty. He also provides weather stations and custom weather monitoring solutions via www.weathershop.com (if you like his work, please consider buying a weather gadget there, StormPredator for example) and www.tempelert.com, and turn key weather channels with advertising at www.viziframe.com The weather graphics you see in the lower right corner of the blog are produced by his company, IntelliWeather.

While he has a skeptical view of certain issues, he considers himself “green” in many ways, and he promotes the idea of energy savings and alternate energy generation. Unlike many who just talk about it, he’s put a 10KW solar array on his home, plus a 125 KW solar array on one of his local schools when he was a school trustee. He’s retrofitted his home with CFL’s and better insulation, as well as installed timer switches on many of his most commonly used lights. He encourages others to do the same.

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Global Warming… The Climate Models Aren’t What They Used to Be

Global warming is real. Kind of.

I interviewed Patrick J. Michaels, the author of Shattered Consensus: The True State of Global WarmingShattered Consensus: The True State of Global Warming and we got the real skinny on what’s been going on.

The observed rate of warming (since 1976) has been remarkably constant, and in recent years we’ve seen a leveling off and even a bit of cooling — but none of the climate models used to show everyone that we need to change our ways have been changed. The models are overly simplistic, in other words: they’re wrong. Even taking the climate model’s as gospel truth for the foreseeable future, our temperature rise is at the low end of rates projected by the United Nations. Just another political manipulation?

About half of the warming of the 20th century is probably a result of greenhouse gas emissions, with particular emphasis on the “second” warming, which began in the mid-1970’s. The first warming took place from 1910-1945, and was largely solar in origin, and there is substantial evidence that the sun’s cycles are playing a big part in the current changes.
Disaster scenarios such as the rapid shedding of ice from Greenland are not warranted by historical data, so Al Gore‘s got this one wrong, too.

There is no known suite of politically acceptable technologies that can significantly alter the warming trajectory of the planet.

Enforcing policies now is simply a waste of money that can better be invested in future technological development.

Once I post the interview, I’ll put a link to it here… You’ve got to listen!

Patrick Michaels
Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies
CATO Institute

Patrick Michaels – A biography

Michaels is a research professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia and visiting scientist with the Marshall Institute in Washington, D.C. He is a past president of the American Association of State Climatologists and was program chair for the Committee on Applied Climatology of the American Meteorological Society. Michaels is a contributing author and reviewer of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

His writing has been published in the major scientific journals, including Climate Research, Climatic Change, Geophysical Research Letters, Journal of Climate, Nature, and Science, as well as in popular serials such as the Washington Post, Washington Times, Los Angeles Times, USA Today, Houston Chronicle, and Journal of Commerce.

He was an author of the climate “paper of the year” awarded by the Association of American Geographers in 2004. He has appeared on ABC, NPR’s “All Things Considered,” PBS, Fox News Channel, CNN, MSNBC, CNBC, BBC and Voice of America. According to Nature magazine, Pat Michaels may be the most popular lecturer in the nation on the subject of global warming.

Michaels holds A.B. and S.M. degrees in biological sciences and plant ecology from the University of Chicago, and he received a Ph.D. in ecological climatology from the University of Wisconsin at Madison in 1979.

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